These Countries Could Be Hit First in a Major Conflict

The idea of a world war might sound remote in everyday life, but for certain countries, risk is not abstract. Their geography, global ties, and military roles keep them on their toes. If conflict scales up quickly, these are the places where missiles, airstrikes, or invasions are likely to land first.

United States

American forces operate globally, and that reach comes with exposure. Military analysts agree that in any future global war, the United States would face immediate strikes against its overseas command hubs. Civilian populations may not see direct attacks first, but cyberattacks and communications breakdowns could cause widespread disruption.

Israel

In 2023, Israel's Ministry of Defense emphasized the growing threat of coordinated drone and missile attacks. While its multi-layered defense systems can block many projectiles, a saturation strike could break through. For this reason, cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa have already developed shelter protocols.

Taiwan

Tensions in the Indo-Pacific have raised concerns about how quickly a clash could erupt near Taiwan. China has stepped up military activity around the island by prompting local authorities to expand emergency shelters and issue updated evacuation plans. Residents track missile notifications and remain prepared for power disruptions.

Poland

Few European nations have responded to heightened regional pressure as actively as Poland. Its government has steadily increased military spending, signed new defense agreements with the U.S. and South Korea, and modernized its forces. These steps reflect growing concern over threats near its eastern border.

South Korea

Seoul, the capital of South Korea, is geographically vulnerable. It lies within range of North Korean artillery and missile systems, so any strife here would unfold rapidly. Any alert could mean minutes—not hours—to find shelter and brace for impact. Consequently, citizens are encouraged to stock emergency kits and understand evacuation procedures.

Japan

Leaders in Japan have become more vocal about growing instability in East Asia, citing the country’s proximity to major military flashpoints. In a conflict, cities like Tokyo could face network interruptions on power grids and transport systems. However, as instability increases, Japan is strengthening regional diplomacy and investing in steadily improving its defensive readiness.

Germany

Germany plays a central role in Europe’s defense structure. It hosts NATO operations and the U.S. European Command, supports critical air logistics through Ramstein, and recently committed to meeting NATO’s spending targets. A military modernization plan launched in 2024 signals a renewed focus on preparedness. These steps increase Germany's strategic value but also raise its exposure.

Ukraine

Various instances of fighting in Ukraine have left cities damaged and millions displaced. After the 2022 invasion, missile strikes became a regular threat that have forced civilians to adapt with alert systems, shelter planning, and emergency supply coordination. In a broader conflict, the territory could become even more contested.

Estonia

Estonia’s digital innovation and strong cybersecurity have built its reputation as one of the most tech-savvy countries in Europe. But its physical defenses tell a different story. In the event of a dispute, its limited geographic depth and small military would offer little resistance without immediate NATO support.

Iran

Recent regional escalations have kept Iran firmly in the spotlight, as relationships with Israel, the U.S., and Gulf nations steadily deteriorate. It supports armed groups across Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Iran’s military regularly issues warnings about foreign intervention.

United Kingdom

British defense officials continue to highlight the threat of cyberwarfare and long-range missile capabilities. Strategic sites like RAF Fylingdales and Menwith Hill link directly to U.S. surveillance networks. If an attack were to break out, disabling those systems would be a priority. The UK also operates nuclear submarines from Faslane, a potential strike target.

France

This spring, officials in France proposed sending a survival manual to every household, covering topics from sheltering during attacks to assembling emergency kits in light of the rising global tensions. They also approved a €50 billion defense budget for 2025, with funding allocated to a new aircraft carrier, missiles, and tech capabilities.

Lithuania

Sitting beside the Suwałki Gap, Lithuania faces logistical risks that most NATO members avoid. This narrow land corridor, connecting it to Poland, could be sealed off quickly and cut off the Baltic states from ground support. Local authorities encourage residents to prepare for communication outages and supply disruptions.

Italy

Decades of cooperation with NATO have shaped Italy into a key logistical partner with deep ties to U.S. and European defense networks. It supports surveillance, naval coordination, and air operations through bases in Naples and Sigonella. Due to this, Italy could serve as a primary launch point for an allied response.

Kenya

By aligning with Western defense efforts in East Africa, Kenya has increased its regional importance—and its vulnerability. It hosts U.S. drone operations and supports security missions in Somalia. Kenya’s government has also expanded key airstrips and strengthened emergency response systems.